On quantile residuals in beta regression

Beta regression is often used to model the relationship between a dependent variable that assumes values on the open interval (0, 1) and a set of predictor variables. An important challenge in beta regression is to find residuals whose distribution is well approximated by the standard normal distribution. Two previous works compared residuals in beta regression, but the authors did not include the quantile residual. Using Monte Carlo simulation techniques, this article studies the behavior of certain residuals in beta regression in several scenarios. Overall, the results suggest that the distribution of the quantile residual is better approximated by the standard normal distribution than that of the other residuals in most scenarios. Three applications illustrate the effectiveness of the quantile residual.     

Test of parameter changes in a class of observation-driven models for count time series

Abstract

This paper investigates the parameter-change tests for a class of observation-driven models for count time series. We propose two cumulative sum (CUSUM) test procedures for detection of changes in model parameters. Under regularity conditions, the asymptotic null distributions of the test statistics are established. In addition, the integer-valued generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic (INGARCH) processes with conditional negative binomial distributions are investigated. The developed techniques are examined through simulation studies and also are illustrated using an empirical example.     

Juggling and Dealing: The Creative Work of Care Package Purchasing

In conventional diagrams of the new service delivery process, assessment of need is linked to purchase by a single line or arrow; the implication is that purchase follows more or less logically and directly from assessment. This paper focuses on the complex creative work that goes on in the "space" between assessment of need and purchase of service, and the changing influences on that work. "Purchase" is deconstructed to reveal the complex processes and calculations involved, and the ways in which budgets "free" resources and markets influence the final outcome. The paper describes the effects on care package construction and purchase of changing policies, budget arrangements and financial limits; it goes on to outline the difficulties and complications in using information on unit costs in purchasing. Unit costs are only part of a complex equation in which prices are negotiated and total cost juggled in the context of budgets, financial limits, real accessibility and balanced by quality considerations. It is suggested that talk of "playing shops" and use of "off-the-shelf" services underestimates the complexity of care package construction and purchase. Micro-purchase of care services has more in common with dealing and juggling than with lifting standardized, packaged, pre-priced goods off shelves in Sainsbury's.     

ROC curve estimation based on local smoothing

ROC curve is a graphical representation of the relationship between sensitivity and specificity of a diagnostic test. It is a popular tool for evaluating and comparing different diagnostic tests in medical sciences. In the literature,the ROC curve is often estimated empirically based on an empirical distribution function estimator and an empirical quantile function estimator. In this paper an alternative nonparametric procedure to estimate the ROC Curve is suggested which is based on local smoothing techniques. Several numerical examples are presented to evaluate the performance of this procedure.     

国外毒品相关犯罪防控的社会政策及评价

毒品引发的犯罪问题已经引起国际社会广泛关注,各国出台了各种措施防控毒品引发的犯罪,基本形成了一套普遍性和针对性相结合的社会政策体系。本文总结区分3个层次:针对社会整体状况及一般公民的普遍性预防政策、针对极有可能成为毒品相关犯罪的受害者或犯罪者的特定防控政策以及针对参与过毒品相关犯罪人群的专项防控政策;并以此为线索系统梳理评价政策实施效果的相关理论和实证研究成果,为我国制定相关政策提供相关启示和借鉴。     

Utilization and limitations of the American College Health Association's National College Health Assessment instrument: A systematic review

ABSTRACT

Objective: To analyze the literature in which researchers have utilized the National College Health Assessment (NCHA) I or the NCHA II. Participants and Methods: The authors selected peer-reviewed articles published between 2004 and July 2013 utilizing a single search term: National College Health Assessment. Articles were assessed for instrument use, limitations, and data analyses. Results: The search resulted in 72 articles for inclusion. Researchers used the instrument to either conduct a primary investigation or utilize reference group data for secondary analysis. Researchers used many data analyses, statistical tests, techniques, and methods. Limitations of the instrument were consistently mentioned by researchers. Conclusions: Results indicate limitations in the NCHA. To ensure college health professionals are gaining the best information possible regarding students on their campuses, specific improvements to the NCHA are recommended.     

Development and Utilization of a Practice-Based,Adolescent Intake Questionnaire (Adquest)

Summary

This article describes an intake questionnaire (Adquest) that was designed, tested, and implemented, and later employed in clinical data-mining studies, by practitioners in an adolescent mental health program. The instrument is primarily a practice-based, clinical information-gathering and client engagement device. Consequently, it differs in significant ways from more research-driven Rapid Assessment Instruments (RAIs). Despite these differences, when aggregated and analyzed, Adquest data provides valuable psychosocial information about hundreds of vulnerable urban youth seeking mental health services.     

The Responsible Use of Psychological Testing in Child Custody Evaluations: Selection of Tests

SUMMARY

The responsible use of psychological tests in child custody evaluations requires an advanced understanding of both psychological issues of test selection and legal criteria regarding admissibility of expert testimony. This paper discusses the psychological and legal issues associated with test selection and with admissibility of expert testimony pertaining to psychological test data. It is argued that the legal standards of relevance and helpfulness require the methodology underlying an expert's testimony to be both reliable and valid. Therefore, it is essential to select psychological tests with demonstrated reliability and validity. Case law regarding expert testimony and the integration of professional practice guidelines pertaining to the use of psychological tests with ethical standards will be discussed.     

Parental spanking and subsequent risk for child aggression in father-involved families of young children

This study examined separate and combined maternal and paternal use of spanking with children at age 3 and children's subsequent aggressive behavior at age 5. The sample was derived from a birth cohort study and included families (n = 923) in which both parents lived with the child at age 3. In this sample, 44% of 3-year-olds were spanked 2 times or more in the past month by either parent or both parents. In separate analyses, being spanked more than twice in the prior month at age 3, by either mother or father, was associated with increased child aggression at 5 years. In combined analyses, there was a dose–response association; the greatest risk for child aggression was reported when both parents spanked more than twice in the prior month (adjusted odds ratio: 2.01; [confidence interval: 1.03–3.94]). Violence prevention initiatives should target and engage mothers and fathers in anticipatory guidance efforts aimed at increasing the use of effective and non-aggressive child discipline techniques and reducing the use of spanking.     

Accomplishing family reunification for children in care: An Australian study

Whilst child protection systems are concerned with removal of children from their families in the interests of safety, the capacity of child welfare systems to return children safely to their families of origin is of central importance. The multidimensional standardised assessment tool, the North Carolina Family Assessment Scale—Reunification (NCFAS-R) was used by practitioners to assess family strengths and needs in case planning and reunification decision making. The current paper examined (1) whether NCFAS-R domain ratings at intake and closure differ by characteristics of parents and children; and (2) whether reunification is predicted by NCFAS-R score at closure.